The official team lists are in for the Rabbitohs vs Knights elimination final, with South Sydney restoring Matt Dufty at fullback and Tallis Duncan returning, while Newcastle receive major boosts through Dominic Young, Tyson Frizell and Phoenix Crossland. With both sides’ seasons on the line and plenty of attacking strike across the backlines, there are several strong try-scorer and player-prop angles for punters.
Biggest Winners – Rabbitohs
Alex Johnston
Johnston owns the standout matchup statistic, having scored an incredible 17 tries in 11 games against Newcastle.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
Latrell Mitchell
Mitchell came through the full 80 minutes against the Roosters and remains at centre for the elimination final. He also boasts an 80 per cent winning record in finals football.
Our Tip: Latrell Mitchell – Anytime Try Scorer
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Matt Dufty
Dufty wins back the No.1 jersey after being an unused reserve last week, pushing Jye Gray to the interchange. His move back to fullback gives him considerably more attacking involvement.
Our Tip: Matt Dufty – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Rabbitohs
Jye Gray
Gray started at fullback against the Roosters but moves back to the interchange with Dufty restored at No.1.
Betting Impact: Avoid Gray’s run-metre and attacking overs with his minutes and role reduced.
Euan Aitken
Aitken is sidelined with a scapula injury, with the returning Tallis Duncan starting in the second row and Adam Elliott moving to the bench.
Our Tip: Tallis Duncan – Over Tackles
Rabbitohs Edge Defence
Newcastle regain Dominic Young and still have Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew and Kalyn Ponga. That’s a significant amount of strike for South Sydney to contain.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Winners – Knights
Greg Marzhew
Marzhew needs one try to equal Newcastle’s club record of 25 tries in a season, set by Dominic Young in 2023.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
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Dominic Young
Young returns from suspension directly onto the wing, with Fletcher Hunt dropping back to the extended bench. His return gives Ponga another elite finishing option.
Our Tip: Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Phoenix Crossland
Crossland returns following knee surgery and goes straight back into the starting hooking role, pushing Harrison Graham to the interchange.
Our Tip: Phoenix Crossland – Over Tackles
Biggest Losers – Knights
Trey Mooney
Mooney’s season is over due to a shoulder injury, forcing Cody Hopwood into the starting front row.
Betting Impact: Newcastle lose an established middle for a sudden-death final against Tatola, Koloamatangi and Murray.
Harrison Graham
Crossland’s return pushes Graham back to the interchange after he started at hooker in Round 26.
Betting Impact: Avoid Graham’s tackle overs with his minutes reduced.
Knights’ Rabbitohs Defence
Johnston’s record is the obvious concern. Seventeen tries in 11 games against Newcastle is an exceptional matchup trend.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
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Early Betting Verdict
This matchup produced 130 combined points across the two regular-season meetings, with Newcastle winning 42-38 in Round 9 before South Sydney responded 26-24 in Round 19. A sudden-death final may tighten things up, but both backlines contain enough strike to keep the try-scorer markets firmly in play.
Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
This is the strongest individual trend in the game. Johnston has crossed 17 times in only 11 appearances against Newcastle.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Marzhew sits one try short of equalling Newcastle’s single-season club record and remains outside Bradman Best on a dangerous left edge.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Young’s return from suspension restores one of Newcastle’s most dangerous finishers for the elimination final.
Our Tip: Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
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Cody Walker – Try Assists
Walker is restored to five-eighth after coming from the interchange last week. With Johnston, Mitchell, Wighton and Graham around him, his creative markets look much cleaner this week.
Our Tip: Cody Walker – 1+ Try Assist
Kalyn Ponga – Try Assists
Newcastle regain Young, meaning Ponga now has both Young and Marzhew as finishing options alongside Best and Gagai.
Our Tip: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
Phoenix Crossland – Tackles
Crossland goes immediately back into the starting No.9 jersey after knee surgery.
Our Tip: Phoenix Crossland – Over Tackles
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Best Bet From The Team Lists
Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
It’s difficult to look beyond Johnston.
The Rabbitohs winger has scored 17 tries in 11 games against Newcastle, while the two meetings between these sides this season produced 130 points.
South Sydney also enter the match as $1.40 favourites with Sportsbet, compared with Newcastle at $2.99 at the time of NRL.com’s latest preview.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
I’d also check Johnston 2+ Tries for the higher-priced extension given his extraordinary record against the Knights.
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Value Bet
Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Marzhew gives us a strong Newcastle alternative rather than simply loading up on South Sydney.
He needs one try to equal the Knights’ club record of 25 in a season, and Newcastle regain Young on the opposite wing, making it harder for South Sydney to concentrate their defensive attention on the Best-Marzhew edge.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
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Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Rabbitohs Try Scorer: Latrell Mitchell – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Knights Try Scorer: Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Rabbitohs Playmaker Prop: Cody Walker – 1+ Try Assist
Knights Playmaker Prop: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
Tackle Prop: Phoenix Crossland – Over Tackles
Higher-Odds Play: Alex Johnston – 2+ Tries
