Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

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Injuries piling up for San Francisco

Another week passes, and it is another week of terrible injury luck for the 49ers. George Kittle is likely to miss most, if not all, of the season and Jimmy Garoppolo had a recurrence of his ankle injury that will probably end his season. The 49ers were favourites to win the NFC coming into the season but they have lost so many of their best players that their season is all but over. Kyle Shanahan is an incredible coach and he will manufacture some offence, but it is unlikely to be enough in a tough division.

Surprise loss for the Packers

The Packers had been flying this season but have now lost two of their past three after a shock defeat to the Vikings. That can be forgiven though as these divisional matches can throw up some unexpected results. They are still one of the best teams in the conference and have a real shot at a Super Bowl.

They did not do anything to improve their team before the trade deadline with many linking them with a move for Will Fuller, but they still have a great team. This week we could see a lot more passing from Green Bay. Aaron Jones is still questionable and AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams will miss the game due to COVID.

Bad matchup for the 49ers

Green Bay are the second ranked offence in the league according to DVOA and even though the 49ers defence has been ok this season, without the likes of Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman they are pretty middle of the road. Davante Adams has been on fire of late and can once again put in a big performance.

The Packers defence can be beaten, but with this San Francisco roster decimated from injury, they just do not have the pieces to do it. Nick Mullens is a fine back up, but there is a reason he has never been a starter and is never likely to be.

It is a big spread, and on a Thursday night I would lean towards the home team. But that home advantage has been all but wiped out with no fans and there is just such a big gap between these two teams in their current states. Matt LeFleur has worked under Shanahan so that is an interesting wrinkle with both likely trying to get the upper hand.

The line has moved 3.5 points since opening due to the Kittle and Garoppolo news, but I still want to take the 49ers on. But I will be buying down to 6.5 points to get the other side of that touchdown spread. The slight decrease in price is worth it to get the other side of that key number.