FREE: NFL Thursday Night Football Week 3 – Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

4 years ago - Sportingbase

That was one of the toughest weeks of my NFL betting life. I truly have no idea how we didn’t come out of that with a good win, let alone ending with a loss but we will bounce back. We have had some tough beats with big comebacks against the 49ers, Seahawks and Rams in the first two weeks, but I feel confident in the picks and that this terrible luck will even itself out. The picks have been the right side, just things haven’t gone right.

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Season to date

Thursday free picks:

Profit/Loss: -5 units
ROI: -71%
Strike rate: 14%

Premium picks:

Profit/Loss: -3.85 units
ROI: -14%
Strike rate: 39%

2020/21 Season results

Profit/Loss: +22.57 units
ROI: 10%
Strike rate: 50%

The start of the Davis Mills era in Houston

With Tyrod Taylor heading to injured reserve and Deshaun Watson’s continued absence, it is Davis Mills team now. The rookie quarterback came in last week and did not look good. He may have been nervous but this Panthers defence has already showed that they have taken a big step up and Brian Burns and co will be getting after him all game long. When he was selected he was seen as a developmental player and nobody would have been wanting him to get into the game this soon. He has very few weapons, and it is hard to see him producing much offence tonight.

Panthers the surprise package

Many expected the Panthers to struggle, but thanks to those defensive improvements and some solid play from Sam Darnold they are sitting at 2-0 and are strong favourites to make that 3-0. The team drafted nothing but defensive players in last season’s draft and that is paying off now. There are two ways to quickly improve – get a star QB, which is far from easy, or go defence heavy and they have quickly turned things around there. With Joe Brady at offensive coordinator they are always going to have some offence, even if Darnold is not spectacular. They may not be a legitimate Super Bowl threat, but they are going to be very hard to beat.

A McCaffrey game

This one looks set to be a big one for Christian McCaffrey. The star running back should have his way with the Texans and with the Panthers likely getting out to an early lead, look for them to lean on him to get things done. Chuba Hubbard did end the game with eight carries and in another one sided affair he could get some carries towards the end.